The present invention relates generally to a system and method for estimating power availability and its relation to business process downtime, and more specifically to a system and method for estimating both the annual power availability and downtime of a business process.
Utility power distribution generally starts with generation of the power by a power generation facility, i.e., power generator or power plant. The power generator supplies power through step-up subtransmission transformers to transmission lines. To reduce power transportation losses, the step-up transformers increase the voltage and reduce the current. The actual transmission line voltage conventionally depends on the distance between the subtransmission transformers and the users or customers. Distribution substation transformers reduce the voltage from transmission line level generally to a range of about 2-35 kilo-volts (xe2x80x9ckVxe2x80x9d). The primary power distribution system delivers power to distribution transformers that reduce the voltage still further to approximately 120 V to 600 V.
Power utility companies, and suppliers thereto, have developed systems to analyze and manage power generated and power to be delivered to the transmission lines in the primary power distribution system, i.e., primarily through supervisory control and data acquisition. These primary power distribution analyzing systems are complex, expensive, and typically do not analyze power that is delivered to the industrial, commercial, or residential customer sites through the secondary power distribution system.
Various distribution systems and environmental factors, however, can significantly contribute to electrical power related problems for a particular building. Some examples of power related problems include harmonic distortion, voltage spikes, surges, or sags, as well as blackouts, or brownouts. These power related problems associated with various distribution systems greatly affect the quality and quantity of power received by the power customer at its facility or building. In some instances, a power customer""s building may experience significant business process disruptions or downtime due to the aforementioned power related problems. This downtime can render the power customer""s business process unavailable for business process operation and/or production. Since these power related problems can be intermittent, they can be difficult to forecast or predict, thereby requiring business process operators to conservatively estimate their production goals. The difference between conservatively estimated production goals and actual production capacity can be substantial. Moreover, the difference between annual profits associated with conservatively estimated production goals and annual profits associated with actual production capacity can also be substantial. Thus, it is desirable to operate a business process at a higher or actual production capacity with associated higher profits rallier than at a lower or more conservatively estimated production goal with associated lower profits. However, if business process operators commit to providing an output based on actual production capacity they may be unable to fulfill their commitments due to unforeseen power related problems and associated business process downtime. As a result, business process operators have been limited to conservatively estimating their production goals.
Therefore, an unsolved need remains for a system and method for estimating business process downtime and/or availability that overcomes the above described limitations and deficiencies of the prior art.
In accordance with principles of the present invention, an Internet-based system and method is set forth for estimating power availability and its relation to business process downtime. Estimation of power availability can be based on specific attributes of a building and business process components contained therein.
In one embodiment of the present invention, a system includes a power availability estimator computer coupled to a plurality of user computers via a computer network. The power availability estimator computer can contain a power availability estimator engine which calculates or estimates the probability that electrical power will be available and an associated downtime for a particular building on an annual basis. The power availability estimator engine includes a plurality of equations that cooperate with a probability density function graph to calculate the estimated power availability and business process downtime. The probability density function graph includes a horizontal axis defining a duration of electrical power events and a vertical axis defining, a frequency of electrical power events.
In another embodiment of the present invention, a method for using the system for estimating power availability and business process downtime in accordance with embodiments of the present invention comprises the steps of: selecting geographical data corresponding to a user""s building location; selecting site data related to the user""s building; selecting component and/or equipment data; selecting business process and costs of downtime related data; electing to generate a service panel report; generating the service panel report; electing to generate an outlet report; generating the outlet report; electing to generate a component and/or equipment power availability report; generating the component and/or equipment power availability report; electing to generate an overall business process downtime and overall power availability report; generating overall business process downtime and overall power availability report; electing to generate a revenue and profit and/or risks report; generating the revenue and profit and/or risks report, electing to generate a total power availability and business process downtime report; generating the total power availability and business process downtime report.